Ajuste fiscal afeta vendas dizem empresários, segundo pesquisa do SPC

Ajuste fiscal afeta vendas dizem empresários, segundo pesquisa do SPC

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Por Claudia Rolli

Sete em cada dez empresários afirmam que as medidas do ajuste fiscal, feitas pelo governo federal, terão impacto negativo na economia do país e em suas vendas.

Os dados constam de levantamento feito pelo SPC (Serviço de Proteção ao Crédito) com 822 proprietários ou responsáveis pela gestão financeira de empresas dos setores de comércio e serviços em todo o país.

“Do lado da empresa, os juros mais elevados afetam empréstimos e negócios. Do lado do consumo, o crédito mais restrito e o índice de confiança menor na economia têm impacto direto na disposição de comprar, o que afeta as vendas”, diz Roque Pelizzaro Junior, presidente do SPC Brasil.

Essas razões podem explicar, em sua avaliação, porque 76% dos empresários acham que o pacote do governo –com alta dos juros, fim da desoneração da folha e aumento de impostos– deve diminuir as vendas das empresas. Nas regiões Centro-Oeste e Sul, esses percentuais são maiores, 86,6% e 80,3%, respectivamente.

 

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EMPREGO

Além do efeito nos negócios, os empresários também dizem que haverá impacto no emprego: 26% afirmam que terão de demitir. No setor de serviços, quase 30% admitem que terão de cortar pessoal; enquanto no de comércio, são 23,1% com intenção de dispensar funcionários.

O Nordeste é a região onde mais empresas informam que vão demitir (40%). Em seguida, estão Centro-Oeste (28,4%), Sul (27,2%), Sudeste 21,7% e Norte (14,5%).

“As regiões mais industriais e mais ricas sentiram primeiro os efeitos da crise e as demissões ocorreram antes. Agora, com o efeito dominó da economia, são regiões como o Nordeste que sentem mais o reflexo negativo da crise e tem de se ajustar”, diz Marcela Ponce Kawauti, economista-chefe do SPC. São empresas, em média, com nove pessoas.

A pesquisa reflete dados constatados no país. Somente em maio, mais de 115 mil vagas com carteira assinada foram fechadas no país. É o pior resultado para o mês de maio desde 1992, segundo o Ministério do Trabalho.

A retração da atividade de vários setores da economia, como indústria, comércio e construção civil, já levou ao fechamento de 244 mil empregos formais no acumulado do ano e à redução de 452,8 mil postos de trabalho nos últimos 12 meses no país.

 

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CONTRÁRIOS ÀS MEDIDAS

Para 61,4% das empresas pesquisadas, os cortes orçamentários não eram necessários e vão significar retrocesso ao país porque devem causar mais problemas para a recuperação da economia e retardar o crescimento do país.

“A maior parte dos empresários está em desacordo com os rumos adotados pelo governo. Eles acreditam que as medidas do ajuste apontam para o caminho errado”, diz o presidente do SPC.

Quase sete em cada dez acreditam que os impostos vão aumentar até o final do ano. Entre as consequências desse aumento estão queda no faturamento, retração no consumo e diminuição das vendas, além de impedir o crescimento da empresa. Também citam que os empréstimos bancários estão mais caros, com juros mais altos nos últimos três meses.

“O aperto fiscal e monetário são recessivos no curto prazo e tem efeito amargo tanto para as famílias como para as empresas. É como um remédio amargo, que demorou para ser dado ao paciente para combater a doença”, diz a economista da instituição. “A dose agora precisa ser maior para conter o desequilíbrio nas contas públicas e a aceleração da inflação.”

Para o economista da Associação Comercial de São Paulo, Marcel Solimeo, o ajuste deve potencializar a desaceleração da economia, que ocorre desde o final do ano passado.

“É a tal história: o ajuste vai ser doloroso e afetar os negócios, mas não fazê-lo ia agravar ainda mais a situação e levá-la para a recessão”, diz o economista da associação.

A insatisfação dos empresários, diz Solimeo, aumenta porque o corte no orçamento afeta somente os investimentos. “Não se refere aos mais de 20 mil cargos de confiança, nem aos ministérios.”

A associação comercial prevê queda de 2% nas vendas do varejo até setembro deste ano, mas o dado pode ser revisto com o agravamento da crise. No ano passado, o comércio fechou com cerca de 3% a 4% de alta, dependendo do segmento, segundo o economista.

CORRUPÇÃO

A corrupção também preocupa a maior parte dos empresários, segundo mostra a pesquisa do SPC: 69,3% acreditam que os escândalos em investigação afetam seus negócios. Desse total, 32,8% dizem que o impacto será grande.

Em média, as 822 empresas que participaram do levantamento possuem nove empregados. Desse total, 53,7% atuam em 11 segmentos do comércio (alimentício, vestuário, supermercado, peças de automóveis, entre outros) e 46,3% atuam em 11 segmentos do setor de serviços (mecânico e automobilístico, hotelaria, borracharia, manutenção de equipamentos, transporte, entre outros).

A maioria está na região Sudeste, com 46,5% das empresas entrevistadas; 19,7% estão no Sul; 18%, no Nordeste e 7,7%, no Norte.

Os dados foram coletados entre 1º e 11 de junho pelo SPC em parceria com a CNDL (Confederação Nacional de Dirigentes Lojistas). A margem de erro é de 3,5 pontos percentuais para um intervalo de confiança de 95%.

 

Fonte: Folha de São Paulo
Acesso: 29 Jun. 2015

 

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