Arrecadação em queda torna mais difícil cumprir ajuste fiscal

Arrecadação em queda torna mais difícil cumprir ajuste fiscal

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Por Gustavo Patu, Sofia Fernandes, Eduardo Cucolo e  Valdo Cruz

Uma nova rodada de resultados negativos evidenciou que, na atual conjuntura de recessão, são remotas as chances de cumprimento do ajuste nas contas públicas prometido pelo ministro Joaquim Levy (Fazenda).

Com a arrecadação em queda, insuficiente para cobrir as despesas do governo em maio, resta à equipe econômica o desafio de revisar a meta fiscal fixada para o ano sem comprometer a credibilidade das projeções oficiais nem estimular o apetite do Congresso por mais gastos.

Três números divulgados nesta quinta (25) demonstram que as medidas tomadas para equilibrar o Orçamento e controlar a inflação ainda estão longe de restabelecer a confiança de empresários e consumidores –e, pior, criaram um círculo vicioso que compromete os objetivos iniciais.

Cortes de gastos, especialmente em obras de infraestrutura, e aumento de juros fizeram encolher o consumo, o investimento e as contratações. Com isso, o desemprego nas metrópoles subiu pelo quinto mês consecutivo e atingiu 6,7% em maio.

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Apurada nas regiões metropolitanas de São Paulo, Rio, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, Recife e Porto Alegre, a taxa contrasta com os 4,9% de um ano atrás, quando o governo comemorava um país perto do pleno emprego.

A retração econômica derruba a receita tributária do governo, uma vez que impostos e contribuições incidem, principalmente, sobre lucros, salários e vendas.

Em maio, a arrecadação federal caiu 4% na comparação com o período correspondente de 2014, já descontada a inflação. Considerando os cinco primeiros meses do ano, a queda é de 3%.

Com os recursos em queda, os esforços para conter as despesas do governo não surtem os efeitos desejados. No mês passado, os gastos do Tesouro com pessoal, programas sociais, custeio administrativo e investimento superaram as receitas em R$ 8 bilhões.

Com o deficit, a poupança acumulada no ano para o abatimento da dívida pública caiu para R$ 6,6 bilhões, apenas 11,9% dos R$ 55,3 bilhões almejados até dezembro pelo governo federal.

LEVY OUVE CONSELHOS

Apesar dos números negativos, que já indicam a impossibilidade de cumprimento da meta fiscal, o ministro Joaquim Levy (Fazenda) ouviu de economistas que o governo ainda não deveria anunciar oficialmente a mudança da meta fiscal de 2015.

Em reunião na Fazenda, só um dos convidados de Levy fez a sugestão de mudança na meta, mas foi contestado pela maioria dos presentes.

O argumento dos contrários à ideia é que, se o governo fizer a redução agora, vai estimular o aumento de gastos federais e prejudicar ainda mais a busca de reequilíbrio das contas públicas.

O ministro da Fazenda, segundo a Folha apurou, não tomou posição sobre o tema. Ele também defende a posição de que a redução não deve ser oficializada agora.

Primeiro, ele quer adotar um conjunto de medidas de elevação de receitas. Objetivo: cumprir o maior superavit possível neste ano.

A equipe de Levy deseja atingir pelo menos um superavit de 0,8% do PIB, ante a meta de 1,1% fixada para este ano. A ala política do governo, porém, preocupada com a paralisia dos ministérios, prefere um número menor, 0,6% do PIB.

Fonte: Folha de São Paulo
Acesos: 26 Jun. 2015

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