Economia mundial

Economia mundial: quais são as 4 tendências para os próximos anos?

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Para entendermos sobre as movimentações e tendências da economia mundial para os próximos anos, é preciso retomar brevemente a estrutura de análise macroeconômica. 

Composta basicamente por cinco mercados, como o de Bens e Serviços, de Trabalho, Monetário — responsável pela análise da inflação —, de Títulos e de Divisas, é importante estar ciente desses conceitos para uma boa gestão do negócio, principalmente para antecipar um movimento específico em tempos de economia em baixa.

Relembrar essas questões é necessário, pois não é possível entender as tendências da economia mundial sem que se tenha noção de suas aplicações e de seus impactos no tripé macroeconômico — câmbio, meta fiscal e meta de inflação. Sendo assim, você acompanha neste artigo quais são as expectativas para os próximos anos.

1. Os sinais de crescimento da economia mundial

O Banco Central Europeu divulgou recentemente suas considerações sobre os sinais de crescimento da economia mundial. Segundo a instituição, há incertezas sobre o comércio global, justamente pelas tensões entre Estados Unidos e China. De acordo com a divulgação do boletim econômico, embora a atividade econômica tenha se mantido resiliente, tornou-se desigual, além de demonstrar sinais de moderação.

Ainda segundo as projeções do BCE, alguns aspectos podem contribuir para esse fato, como:
retirada de apoios às economias mais avançadas;
chegada da fase madura do ciclo econômico global;
impacto da imposição de tarifas em relação ao comércio dos Estados Unidos e China.

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Por essas razões, a tendência é que a atividade econômica desacelere no ano de 2019, tornando-se estável a partir de então. Sobre as taxas de crescimento, o BCE prevê uma desaceleração da zona do euro de 2018 para 2019: de 1.9% para 1.7%, abaixo do esperado há alguns meses. Em setembro, a previsão de crescimento para 2018 era de 2%, enquanto para 2019, 1.8%. Em 2020, o crescimento do PIB se manterá em 1.7%.

2. A guerra comercial entre EUA e China

Recentemente, após apelos dos líderes do G20 reunidos na Argentina, Estados Unidos e China acertaram uma trégua para superar a guerra comercial, sob a figura de seus líderes Donald Trump e Xi Jinping. Dessa forma, o presidente norte-americano se comprometeu a não elevar a alíquota de importação, de 10% para 25%, sobre US$ 200 bilhões em produtos chineses. Do lado de lá, o país afirmou que elevaria a compra de produtos dos Estados Unidos.

Tanto um quanto o outro se comprometeram em buscar por um acordo comercial mais ambicioso. Caso isso não ocorra em um período de 90 dias, Trump pode retomar com as altas tarifas. Você deve estar se perguntando: como fica o Brasil em meio a essa briga de grandes nações? De acordo com as estatísticas do comércio exterior de nosso país, inicialmente ele se beneficiou, pois a China aumentou a compra de commodities brasileiras, principalmente se observarmos a compra de soja e barris de petróleo.

No entanto, o temor dos economistas é que essa disputa se prolongue, provocando uma desaceleração mundial da qual o país não sairia ileso. Sendo assim, os efeitos globais em relação às taxas de câmbio e preços, seja pelo encarecimento dos produtos, seja pelos produtos sobretaxados, são imprevisíveis.

A queda do PIB mundial e do PIB brasileiro nesse período já pode ser considerada como um impacto dessa guerra comercial. De acordo com o FMI, a taxa de crescimento  do PIB global reduziu de 3.9% para 3.7%, enquanto a brasileira caiu de 1.8% para 1.4% no ano de 2018.

3. A economia mundial e os bancos centrais

A Organização para Cooperação do Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE) também prevê os riscos crescentes das barreiras comerciais para os próximos anos, como saídas de capital de países emergentes, além do aumento do preço do petróleo. Em sua avaliação, as tensões já mencionadas neste texto contribuíram para uma queda entre 0,1% e 0,2% do PIB global em 2018, enquanto as projeções para os EUA são de 2,8% em 2018 e 2,7% em 2019.

Em 2020, a desaceleração pode ser ainda maior, chegando a 2,1% no país norte-americano. De acordo com a Organização, os governos mundiais necessitam de planos de gastos para serem implementados rapidamente e de maneira coordenada para situações de desaceleração, tendo em vista que os bancos centrais não possuem mais instrumentos para frearem uma crise econômica global.

Nesse mesmo relatório, a OCDE afirma que, em um momento no qual os bancos centrais retiram estímulos para conterem a desaceleração da economia mundial, a taxa básica de juros do Fed (Banco Central dos EUA) deverá ficar na faixa de 3.25% a 3.5% até o final de 2019, enquanto atualmente está entre 2% e 2.25%. Ainda de acordo com a Organização, o Banco do Japão precisa repensar a estratégia atual, estabelecendo uma nota de inflação.

Economia mundial

4. A economia brasileira neste cenário 

De acordo com as projeções sobre a economia brasileira, para os próximos anos, a tendência é um avanço mais forte do Produto Interno Bruto, mas com uma recuperação lenta em 2019, já sob o novo governo. Inicialmente, a previsão de analistas é a de que a taxa de crescimento fique em entre 2% e 3% no próximo ano, com um ritmo modesto até o final deste governo.

De acordo com especialistas, há alguns fatores que explicam essa lenta retomada para os próximos anos. Entre eles, o fato de empresas e governos terem entrado na crise já com dívidas, o que diminuiu o espaço para aumentar o consumo e para investir, freando a recuperação.

Além disso, o país fez investimentos em setores pouco produtivos, dificultando o potencial de crescimento da economia. Por fim, como as contas públicas estão em crise, houve a derrubada e limitação dos investimentos da União, estados e municípios.

As tensões mundiais também afetam o nosso cenário, uma vez que a guerra comercial entre EUA e China pode desacelerar a economia, além de aumentar a perspectiva de juros mais altos e de afetar o fluxo de capitais para países emergentes.

A partir da leitura deste conteúdo, você pôde ter acesso a 4 tendências da economia mundial para os próximos anos, além de entender como esse cenário causa impacto no Brasil neste momento de transição governamental. Entender essas questões é essencial para estabelecer estratégias para o seu negócio, uma vez que ele pode ser afetado diretamente pelas tensões comerciais e quedas de crescimento global.

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