Economistas elevam projeção de juros e veem inflação a 9% em 2015

Economistas elevam projeção de juros e veem inflação a 9% em 2015

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Economistas de instituições financeiras voltaram a elevar a perspectiva para a taxa básica de juros Selic no final deste ano, mas mantiveram o cenário para o final de 2016, ao mesmo tempo em que cravaram expectativa de inflação de 9% em 2015 após o Banco Central rever suas estimativas.

De acordo com a pesquisa Focus do BC divulgada nesta segunda-feira (29), os especialistas consultados veem agora a taxa básica de juros a 14,50% no fim de 2015, contra 14,25% antes.

Para a reunião de julho do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom), os analistas consultados continuam vendo alta de 0,5 ponto percentual na Selic, atualmente em 13,75%.

Depois os economistas projetam mais uma alta de 0,25 ponto na reunião seguinte, em setembro, com a Selic indo a 14,50% e permanecendo nesse patamar até o fim deste ano.

Dashboard 1

Os especialistas consultados projetam que a taxa básica sofrerá então seu primeiro corte em janeiro, caindo para 14,25%, permanecendo assim em março e sofrendo o segundo corte só em abril, novamente de 0,25 ponto percentual.
Para o fim de 2016, a expectativa para a Selic continua a mesma, de 12%.

A pesquisa apontou piora do cenário para o IPCA em 2015 pela 11ª semana seguida, com a projeção subindo 0,03 ponto percentual e chegando a 9%.

Na semana passada, o BC diminuiu levemente sua previsão para a inflação em 2016, e reforçou diversas vezes que segue comprometido com um IPCA em 4,5% até o fim do ano que vem, sugerindo aperto mais duro nos juros para concretizar a tarefa.

Mas no Focus, os economistas mantiveram a perspectiva para a alta dos preços em 2016 a 5,5%.

Fonte: Folha de São Paulo
Acesso: 30 Jun. 2015

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