Governo está quebrado. Mas abre mão de impostos a perder de vista

Governo está quebrado. Mas abre mão de impostos a perder de vista

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Mais de 80% das renúncias fiscais da União não têm prazo para acabar. Em 2017, esses programas drenaram o equivalente a 20% da arrecadação federal – e não se sabe o quanto ajudaram (ou não) a economia

O governo federal está quebrado, mas abre mão de impostos sem definir metas claras nem exigir contrapartidas. E mantém esses benefícios indefinidamente, sem avaliar se estão dando resultado. Esse é o cenário desenhado pelo Relatório Fiscal do Tesouro Nacional, publicado em março, que tem um capítulo dedicado à análise das renúncias fiscais, chamadas de “gastos tributários” no jargão da contabilidade pública.

A generosidade na concessão desses incentivos tem impacto gigantesco sobre os cofres públicos. Em 2017, calcula a Receita Federal, a União deixou de receber R$ 276 bilhões, o equivalente a 20,4% da arrecadação total e a 4,1% de todas as riquezas geradas pelo país no ano. Um luxo, dada a situação das finanças públicas. O governo federal vem fechando as contas no vermelho – antes mesmo de pagar os juros da dívida – desde 2014, e assim deve continuar até os primeiros anos da próxima década.

Segundo o relatório do Tesouro, 84% dos programas de incentivo fiscal da União não têm prazo determinado de duração, o que significa que eles só serão encerrados ou aprimorados se o Congresso mudar a legislação. Apenas 16% têm data para terminar – e dentre estes há alguns de longa duração, como a Zona Franca de Manaus, em vigor até 2073.

“Estabelecer prazo indeterminado para os benefícios fiscais desestimula a revisão por parte da administração”, aponta o texto do Tesouro, destacando que, por outro lado, “definir um prazo para os benefícios pode forçar uma nova rodada de negociações para sua manutenção”.

Caso emblemático dos problemas gerados pela falta de prazo está na desoneração da folha de pagamento. Esse programa, criado na gestão Dilma Rousseff, derrubou a arrecadação da Previdência sem provocar o efeito esperado pelo governo sobre a geração de empregos. Ao completar quatro anos, em julho, o benefício terá retirado R$ 53 bilhões dos cofres públicos, estima a Receita. O mercado formal de trabalho fechou 2,5 milhões de vagas entre 2014 e 2017.

Ainda na gestão Dilma, o então ministro da Fazenda Joaquim Levy conseguiu reverter uma pequena parte da desoneração. O presidente Michel Temer tenta, desde o ano passado, “reonerar” a folha da maioria dos setores beneficiados, sem sucesso. Preocupados com a eleição, os parlamentares não mostram interesse em aprovar o projeto que está no Congresso, que contraria o interesse de vários setores empresariais.

Outra fragilidade apontada pelo Relatório Fiscal é que, em mais da metade das renúncias, não há um responsável pela administração do benefício – 53% deles não têm órgão gestor. “E, quando possuem, este órgão tem natureza mais direcionada à execução do programa do que à avaliação de sua eficiência e efetividade”, afirma o documento, citando como exemplos a Suframa, que administra a Zona Franca de Manaus, e o Conselho Gestor do Simples, responsável pelo Simples Nacional.

A presença de um órgão gestor, avalia o Tesouro, facilita a observação dos resultados da renúncia tributária e permite sua contínua avaliação. O problema é que nenhum dos incentivos fiscais federais tem metas específicas. Na melhor das hipóteses, a legislação menciona objetivos genéricos – como, por exemplo, “estimular a formalização de firmas”, em vez de especificar qual é o índice esperado e o que será feito caso ele não seja atingido.

Um problema não mencionado pelo relatório do Tesouro é que algumas das renúncias fiscais da União acabam prejudicando os governos regionais. É o caso das desonerações de Imposto de Renda (IR) e Imposto sobre Produtos Industrializados (IPI), tributos federais cuja arrecadação é compartilhada com estados e municípios. Cerca de 44% das renúncias do ano passado eram relacionadas a esses dois impostos, conforme estimativa incluída no Projeto de Lei Orçamentária Anual (PLOA).

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“Os gastos indiretos realizados através do sistema tributário possuem múltiplos impactos, tanto de ordem econômica (em termos de alocação de recursos, grau de complexidade tributária e eficiência) como de desenvolvimento regional”, aponta, em relatório, Gabriel Leal de Barros, diretor-adjunto da Instituição Fiscal Independente (IFI), ligada ao Senado. “A necessidade de criteriosa avaliação, portanto, além de alinhada ao princípio da finitude e escassez dos recursos públicos, deve ter em perspectiva os impactos em torno da agenda federativa”, completa.

Críticas às desonerações

Uma vez que o governo não costuma medir o efeito de seus programas de desoneração, algumas instituições buscam fazer essa avaliação. O Banco Mundial, por exemplo, apontou no fim do ano passado que a maioria dos programas de incentivos fiscais e subsídios a empresas “é ineficaz e beneficia empresas estabelecidas e ineficientes, em detrimento da produtividade e da geração de empregos”.

O organismo internacional destacou o custo elevado da desoneração da folha de pagamento – cada posto de trabalho criado ou preenchido exigiu, em despesas públicas, mais que o triplo do salário pago ao trabalhador.

O Banco Mundial também fez duras críticas ao Simples Nacional, principal programa de incentivo fiscal do país. Afirmou que ele é caro – representou uma renúncia de R$ 82,5 bilhões apenas em 2017, segundo a Receita – e potencialmente distorcivo. Na visão do banco, o Simples estimula as empresas a continuar pequenas, para pagar menos impostos, e prejudica a competitividade de companhias de médio porte, que recolhem mais tributos.

Em resposta, os defensores do Simples enfatizam seu papel na geração de empregos e na sobrevivência de micro e pequenas empresas, responsáveis por mais de 17 milhões de empregos formais. “É um dos maiores programas de justiça fiscal e inclusão social do mundo”, disse à Gazeta do Povo o presidente do Sebrae, Guilherme Afif Domingos, em entrevista concedida em dezembro.

Renúncia diminuiu a partir de 2016. Mas pode voltar a crescer, diz Tesouro

No início da década, os programas de renúncia fiscal tiravam dos cofres federais pouco mais de 16% da arrecadação total e perto de 3,5% do PIB. Os números cresceram rapidamente a partir de 2012, até chegar ao pico de 23,3% da arrecadação e 4,6% do PIB em 2015.

Com a reversão de parte da desoneração da folha, as perdas caíram um pouco desde então. Mas o documento do Tesouro aponta para o risco de um novo crescimento nos próximos anos, devido à “rigidez institucional” – que ajuda a manter os benefícios indefinidamente – e ao teto de gastos públicos, que, ao limitar o crescimento dos gastos diretos, pode incentivar o governo a aumentar os indiretos, isto é, as desonerações.

“É necessário, portanto, estabelecer mecanismos de avaliação ex-ante [anterior] e ex-post [posterior] dos programas a se instituir e já instituídos, com objetivo de garantir maior eficácia dessas políticas”, conclui o relatório.

Fonte: Gazeta do Povo
Data: 18 de abril de 2018
Acesso: 19 de abril de 2018

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