Melhores gestores do país atrelam otimismo a sucesso do ajuste fiscal

Melhores gestores do país atrelam otimismo a sucesso do ajuste fiscal

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Por Luciana Seabra e Luciana Del Caro

Diante de uma economia parada, mas com inflação elevada, não há espaço para grande otimismo. Essa é a visão dos melhores gestores de recursos brasileiros, que se reuniram ontem, em São Paulo, para receber o Prêmio Top Gestão 2015, organizado pelo Valor em parceria com a Standard & Poor’s.

O ajuste fiscal é considerado por muitos uma luz no fim do túnel, com uma correção de rumos. O acerto, porém, vai deixar marcas profundas em 2015 e 2016.

Na renda fixa, a visão é de que tudo vai depender do sucesso do ajuste. Se bem­sucedido, isso pode se traduzir em controle da inflação para a meta e uma correção para baixo forte nos juros de médio e longo prazos, beneficiando títulos prefixados e indexados à inflação. Há, no entanto, quem acredite que a inflação possa demorar a convergir para a meta, tornando o ciclo de elevação dos juros mais longo.

Para Julio Callegari, estrategista­chefe de renda fixa do J.P. Morgan, a confiança na capacidade de o Banco Central conseguir trazer a inflação para o centro da meta é “o componente que falta, na prática, para que o mercado aplique de forma mais consistente nos juros de longo prazo”.

Oportunidades no crédito privado, diante da deterioração do ambiente macroeconômico e consequente aumento da remuneração dos papéis, também estão na mira dos gestores, assim como a política monetária americana, que leva a buscar proteção em ativos indexados ao dólar e a evitar títulos de vencimento distante.

No segmento de ações, conservadorismo e seletividade continuam como palavras de ordem. Na visão de Reinaldo Le Grazie, que sucedeu Joaquim Levy no comando da Bradesco Asset Management (Bram), o adiamento da alta de juros nos EUA “deve abrir uma oportunidade para a melhora da renda variável no mundo e o Brasil vai viver essa onda também”. O gestor ressalva, porém, que “aqui essa recuperação vai depender do ajuste fiscal e de quanto tempo a inflação demorar a cair”.

A nova edição da revista “ValorInveste” traz os ganhadores do Prêmio Top Gestão 2015 e circula nesta terça­feira. A S&P separou os premiados em dois grupos. Entre os grandes gestores, ganharam: Bradesco na categoria renda variável; BTG Pactual nas categorias renda variável e renda fixa; J. Safra (multimercados); Votorantim (multimercados) e HSBC (renda fixa). Já no segmento focados, os venceram: XP Gestão de Recursos (renda variável); Quest (renda variável); BBM (multimercados); ARX (multimercados); J.P. Morgan (renda fixa) e Mapfre (renda fixa).

Fonte: Valor Econômico
Acesso: 23 Jun. 2015

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