Previdência prevê avanços em 2015

Previdência prevê avanços em 2015

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Por Marcelo Pinho

Em tempos de crise, é melhor poupar do que gastar. Esse é um dos fatores que explicam a resistência do segmento de previdência privada diante da crise. O cenário preocupa as empresas, claro, mas não é suficiente para reduzir metas ou mesmo encolher. As instituições financeiras que apostam no setor são unânimes em projetar um 2015 melhor do que o ano passado, com crescimento na casa de dois dígitos.

De acordo com a Federação Nacional de Previdência Privada e Vida (Fenaprevi), a receita das empresas de previdência privada cresceu 40% nos primeiros três meses do ano na comparação com igual período de 2014.

A preocupação com o futuro diante da crise é uma das explicações, mas não a única. Osvaldo Nascimento, presidente da Fenaprevi, cita ainda a inevitabilidade de uma reforma ampla e dolorosa da Previdência pública, o que leva cada vez mais as pessoas a buscar a proteção nos planos privados.

“A receita do setor depende de renda e consumo. Se essas pessoas evitam consumo vão poupar. A previdência tem muito potencial por conta da reforma da previdência oficial. Só aqui a previdência é extremamente generosa. O déficit é astronômico, beira R$ 100 bilhões ano. É um setor que os governos vão ter que reformar. É anacrônica. Obrigatoriamente o Brasil vai mexer nisso em dez anos e quando ficar real vai liberar mais espaço para a complementar”, diz Nascimento.

De acordo com Sergio Prates, superintendente da Icatu Seguros, a empresa registrou alta de 39% nas contribuições dos clientes. Ele atribui o resultado a um maior esforço comercial da empresa. “Nós focamos muito nas empresas, especialmente nas do setor de serviços que são as que menos sentiram até agora os efeitos da crise. Com isso conquistamos novos clientes e tivemos no segmento empresarial um crescimento expressivo de 65% neste começo de ano”, diz.

Entre os bancos, apesar de o discurso de crescimento ser unânime, as explicações para esse resultado são distintas. “Esse começo de ano a previdência privada funcionou como porto seguro. Na incerteza o cliente optou pela previdência”, diz Lúcio Flávio, presidente da Bradesco Vida e Previdência.

As receitas da Bradesco Vida e Previdência cresceram quase 22% nos quatro primeiros meses do ano. A expectativa do executivo é manter o crescimento na casa dos dois dígitos ao longo de 2015.

Claudio Pires, diretor da Mongeral Aegon, levanta outra hipótese para o bom momento. Para ele, as altas taxas de juros da economia elevaram o retorno sobre o investimento. Com isso, mais clientes passaram a se interessar por produtos de previdência.

As captações líquidas da empresa apresentaram crescimento acima de 30% nos primeiros meses do ano. “Estamos crescendo aqui acima do mercado. Nossa expectativa para o segundo semestre, que costuma ser sazonalmente mais forte, é de crescer ainda mais”, diz.

Por fim outro fator que sempre explica o bom desempenho da previdência
privada no Brasil é a baixa penetração do produtos. Marcos Figueiredo,
superintendente de previdência do Santander, acredita que esse fator ajuda a explicar a resistência à crise que afeta a economia. No Santander o primeiro quadrimestre registrou alta de 10% nas captações. “Hoje em dia o cliente está mais familiarizado com os objetivos da previdência privada. Já existe uma consciência da necessidade do produto e a receptividade é maior”, diz.
Existe, porém um consenso quanto aos riscos: uma corrosão mais acentuada da renda e do emprego podem afetar esses números de crescimento.

Pelos cálculos da Fenaprevi, em cinco anos o setor pode quebrar a barreira de R$ 1 trilhão em recursos administrados. As próximas fronteiras são as pequenas e médias empresas, que hoje ainda representam parcela insignificante da carteira. O mercado aguarda ainda mudanças regulatórias e tributárias que estimulem os donos das PMEs a apostar na previdência complementar como forma de retenção de talentos.

Fonte: Valor Econômico
Acesso: 25 Jun. 2015

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