Um terço dos estados brasileiros tem queda na arrecadação de IRPJ e CSLL

Um terço dos estados brasileiros tem queda na arrecadação de IRPJ e CSLL

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No primeiro trimestre, entes como Rio de Janeiro, Paraná e Amazonas registraram recuo na receita e a expectativa de especialistas é que o número de unidades com retração aumente

Um terço dos estados brasileiros registrou queda na arrecadação do Imposto de Renda da Pessoa Jurídica (IRPJ) e da Contribuição Social sobre o Lucro Líquido (CSLL) nos primeiros três meses do ano.

Especialistas não descartam que o número de unidades federativas (UFs) com retração nessas duas receitas tributárias aumentem no final do primeiro semestre e no fechamento deste ano. Para eles, a frágil recuperação da atividade econômica e as incertezas geradas pela instabilidade política e social estão fazendo as famílias colocarem o “pé no freio” no consumo, o que limita expansão do faturamento e do lucro das empresas.

A arrecadação de IRPJ caiu em oito estados brasileiros no primeiro trimestre, em relação a igual período de 2017: no Rio de Janeiro (-18,7%, para R$ 7,367 bilhões); Paraná (-3,2%, para R$ 1,7 bilhão); Goiás (-0,28%, para R$ 524 milhões); Amazonas (-25,7%, para R$ 442 milhões); Mato Grosso do Sul (-5,51%, para 186 milhões); Piauí (-0,37%, para R$ 97 milhões); Acre (-16,4%, para R$ 24 milhões) e Roraima (-14,6%, para R$ 21,3 milhões). As informações são da Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional, organizados pelo portal Compara Brasil, uma iniciativa da Frente Nacional de Prefeitos (FNP) e da Aequus Consultoria.

O Rio (-20,2%, a R$ 4,641 bilhões), o Paraná (-4,7%, a R$ 923 milhões), Amazonas (-17,7%, a R$ 410 milhões), Mato Grosso do Sul (-0,14%, a R$ 104 milhões), Piauí (-5,1%, a R$ 70 milhões), Acre (-10,7%, a 15 milhões) e Roraima (-10,3%, a R$ 12,7 milhões) também registraram recuo na arrecadação de CSLL. Outras UFs que verificaram diminuição na receita da contribuição foram o Distrito Federal (-11,4%, para R$ 1,6 bilhão) e o Rio Grande do Sul (-5,8%, para R$ 986 milhões). O professor de economia da Fipecafi, Silvio Paixão, chama a atenção para a situação do RJ. “O Rio de Janeiro está bastante comprometido. Além da crise fiscal, o estado passa por uma intervenção federal na segurança pública, o que contribui para desestimular o consumo da população e os investimentos dos empresários”, ressalta Silvio Paixão.

“Se o País conseguir ao menos manter esse fraco nível de atividade econômica, a arrecadação do IRPJ e CSLL pode até continuar avançando em termos reais, o que já seria uma vitória”, afirma o professor da Fipecafi. No entanto, ele analisa que as incertezas políticas, ao dificultarem a recuperação da economia, podem fazer com que o número de estados com queda na receita IRPJ e na CSLL aumentem nesse semestre ou até o final do ano.

A arrecadação total do IRPJ, expandiu 3,7% no primeiro trimestre de 2018 (para R$ 43 bilhões), contra igual período de 2017, quando essa receita havia crescido 1,3%. Contudo, Silvio Paixão lembra que o imposto não conseguiu se recuperar de uma queda de 23,5% acumulada nos primeiros trimestres de 2014, 2015 e 2016.

Sem consistência

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O sócio da Méthode Consultoria, Adriano Gomes, reforça que é bem provável que o número de estados com queda no imposto de renda aumentem nos próximos meses. “Está difícil enxergar uma recuperação consistente da economia. O quadro político está bastante confuso, não há certeza sobre a agenda econômica que será implementada a partir de 2019 e o cenário social está muito conturbado. Esses fatores geram uma insegurança muito grande”, diz Gomes.

Ele acrescenta que a oscilação nos indicadores da atividade industrial também explicam a fraca recuperação do IRPJ e CSLL, já que essas empresas são de maior porte e, portanto, pagam um volume maior de impostos. Até março, a arrecadação total de CSLL no País caiu 0,35%, para R$ 25 bilhões, ante igual período do ano passado, mostram dados do Compara Brasil.

No Sudeste, a receita de IRPJ cresceu em São Paulo (+11,7%, para R$ 20,3 bilhões), Minas Gerais (+16%, para R$ 2,9 bilhões) e Espírito Santo (+35,5%, para R$ 718 milhões). No Sul, houve alta em Santa Catarina (+22,1%, para R$ 1,3 bilhão) e Rio Grande do Sul (+4%, para R$ 1,8 bilhão), enquanto no Centro-Oeste, Mato Grosso (+2,6%, para R$ 276 milhões) e Distrito Federal (+0,62%, para R$ 2,5 bilhões) registraram crescimento.

No Nordeste, Bahia (+24,5%, para R$ 617 milhões) e Pernambuco (+16,8%, para R$ 524 milhões) foram destaque, ao passo que, no Norte, as maiores altas foram Tocantins (+92%, para R$ 95,6 milhões) e Amapá (18%, a R$ 20 milhões).

Contribuição

No Sudeste, a receita de CSLL cresceu em São Paulo (+9,4%, para R$ 11,6 bilhões), Minas Gerais (+9%, para R$ 1,3 bilhão) e Espírito Santo (+29%, para R$ 338 milhões). No Sul, houve alta somente em Santa Catarina (+15%, para R$ 677 milhões), enquanto no Centro-Oeste, Mato Grosso (+6%, para R$ 170 milhões) e Goiás (+0,86%, para R$ 268 milhões) tiveram destaque.

No Nordeste, Bahia (+31%, para R$ 433 milhões) e Pernambuco (+17%, para R$ 316 milhões) registraram os maiores aumentos, ao passo que no Norte, os avanços percentualmente mais significativos foram Tocantins (+53,6%, para R$ 46 milhões) e Amapá (29%, para R$ 10 milhões). O estado do Pará, por sua vez, viu sua receita de CSLL expandir de 2%, a R$ 256 milhões.

Fonte: DCI
Data: 28 de maio de 2018
Acesso: 30 de maio de 2018

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